Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 23.130161 25.162044 27.352891 29.901338 32.797663 36.002853 39.840115
2026-01-18 19.783792 22.536380 25.708235 29.674796 34.561664 40.465770 48.265397
2026-01-25 17.489286 20.640332 24.465089 29.537765 36.228844 44.965810 57.619247
2026-02-01 15.837203 19.229564 23.525503 29.511725 37.890883 49.629590 68.185025
2026-02-08 14.514605 18.036741 22.655771 29.367149 39.260570 54.030710 79.395220
2026-02-15 13.438422 17.027216 21.875324 29.179553 40.454321 58.299344 91.482091
2026-02-22 12.541239 16.157632 21.170058 28.967198 41.513695 62.480349 104.596398
2026-03-01 11.825885 15.466786 20.632320 28.908675 42.759502 67.160233 120.159152
2026-03-08 11.206628 14.854669 20.139964 28.839663 43.940725 71.920853 137.618475
2026-03-15 10.905658 14.673914 20.263778 29.753055 46.942720 80.784807 168.440853
2026-03-22 10.355361 14.079019 19.694542 29.438022 47.640580 85.127742 189.924876
2026-03-29 9.925067 13.633996 19.320182 29.406680 48.856280 90.856050 218.529212
2026-04-05 9.578563 13.305143 19.121277 29.691512 50.807578 98.952835 260.837505
2026-04-12 9.155299 12.831019 18.650869 29.439063 51.631845 104.627572 299.653515
2026-04-19 8.787742 12.422674 18.259109 29.290616 52.658668 111.166736 348.423316
2026-04-26 8.471594 12.077388 17.947344 29.258893 53.939331 118.836303 411.404211
2026-05-03 8.162027 11.724610 17.596682 29.113301 54.937119 126.064841 482.583168
2026-05-10 7.870008 11.384401 17.243997 28.926717 55.809597 133.260971 566.067314
2026-05-17 7.596064 11.059688 16.896871 28.716367 56.592994 140.508774 665.188256
2026-05-24 7.364054 10.793220 16.636209 28.658288 57.754852 149.562274 802.149165
2026-05-31 7.146236 10.539793 16.382703 28.589993 58.883839 159.039109 975.007834
2026-06-07 7.073623 10.529696 16.573034 29.492127 62.799414 181.306289 1403.791936
2026-06-14 6.846515 10.241570 16.227143 29.180945 63.277865 189.686212 1698.488007